How Young Voters Impacted the 2024 Election

By Logan Dubel

Reporting Texas

Students wait in line to cast their ballots at the Texas Union on Election Day. (Logan Dubel/Reporting Texas TV)

Questions about what propelled President-elect Donald Trump and other Republicans to victory on Election Night are likely to be discussed for months.

Early data suggests that young voters, particularly men, fueled Trump’s return to the White House. According to The Wall Street Journal, voters ages 18-29 made up 16% of the national electorate. While Vice President Kamala Harris maintained an 11% advantage among this group, it marked a 13% drop from President Joe Biden’s share in 2020, according to CNN’s exit poll. 

“It shows what happens when one of the two major parties actually makes a concerted effort to seek out the votes of young people,” said Joshua Blank, director of research for the Texas Politics Project. “That really freed (Trump) in the final weeks of the campaign to focus on groups he was looking to improve his margins with.”

The Trump campaign also succeeded in motivating first-time voters. President Biden scored a whopping 32% edge over Trump in 2020, but Republicans turned this around for a 13% advantage in 2024. 

Although Blank cautioned that the political environment around which young voters first participate can greatly influence who they support, he emphasized Trump’s strength in motivating low-propensity voters. 

“In this particular environment, the nature of the issues; the focus on the economy, immigration and the border, and the reality of Democratic control of the White House meant that many of these voters entered the electorate with a skew towards the Republican party,” Blank said. “Can anyone else turn out these low-propensity voters at the rate that Donald Trump has in the past and continues to be able to? It doesn’t seem likely.” 

Political experts, Blank said, will continue to study the results and look ahead to the 2028 election.

Despite the historic presidential race and a much-watched senate race, less Texans showed up to the poll this year than in 2020. Turnout dipped to 57.1%, down from 66.7% four years ago, according to Texas Secretary of State Jane Nelson. Turnout in Travis County, while higher than other parts of the state, also dipped from over 70% in 2020, to 63% this year. 

For Blank, the context of each election must be taken into consideration.  In 2020, then-president Trump was overseeing the mismanagement of a global pandemic and the global collapse that went with it. 

“We have to take into account the context of the elections. When then-President Trump lost re-election in 2020, he was overseeing the mismanagement of a global pandemic and the economic collapse that went along with it. It was unsurprising then to see extremely high turnout given the stakes of the political conflict,” Blank said. “Flash forward to 2024, and what we see is an electorate that is overwhelmingly concerned with prices and the cost of living, and those low-propensity voters tend to be those voters who are most impacted by these kinds of economic swings. It’s not surprising to see those voters enter the electorate with a desire to change the party in the White House.”